A bit of an ironic title, because to me, there isn't much science in it. I don't have any fancy stats to give you, but the number of players first round players who are hyped for the NFL who pan out to be stars is very low.
There are a number of quarterbacks that will be picked in the first round this year. Statistically, maybe 1 will turn out to meet expectations and you don't know who it will be. Certainly some of it has to do with the team and coach that you end of up, (see Archie Manning), but some of it also is that the player who may have been good in college can't handle the pro game. It is really hard to predict who can and can't do it.
If you look at a roster of an NFL team, sure there are players from the top college teams on there, but there are a number of players from places like Morehead State or Texas El Paso and places like that. Some guys can handle it and some can't.
There are certainly some things that a team could see that would cause them to take or not take a player, but these are still based on statistics. This is why savvy teams really just stock up on picks if they can and realize that some of the guys they take won't make the team and will likely be out of the league in a year or two. It becomes as much a probability game as anything else.
So while research and advice can help, it is a guarantee of nothing. There are so many examples it will make your head spin. Reggie Bush was one of the most decorated and hyped college players to come out of college that i can remember. And at USC, he was incredible. He did stay in the league for a number of years, but he was no star and really not even close. How can you predict this? You can't.
That's why I don't really pay a lot of attention to the draft. it is a predictor of nothing really. who a team picks may give you some idea of their direction, but not really of their success. I mentioned that teams that blow their first round picks are doomed in another post. That is true, especially if it is year after year, but it is hard to know who will be good with a few exceptions.
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